The attempts of the 2nd NCPO government to
stay as long as possible
Tida Tawornseth
June 12, 2019
(Adapted from Facebook live)
While the 2nd
NCPO government has been established by many questionable means, the lack of
legitimacy and numerous weak points are apparent. Inheritance of power is clear
as the prime minister, deputy prime minister and minister posts are occupied by
members of the previous NCPO cabinet like Visanu Krua-ngam, Prawit Wongsuwan,
and Somkid Jatusripitak. So, the new government should be called “NCPO-2”.
For
“NCPO-1”, it stayed in power for four years and another 280+ days. For
“NCPO-2”, the regime also wants to stay in power for even longer.
Is policy
the strong or the weak point of NCPO? The junta might think that its policy is
the strong point, but I think otherwise. MP candidates from the junta-supported
party who met many voters during an election campaign would agree with me that
there are many flaws in the junta’s policy.
Although
General Prayuth receives the support of 251 MPs and 500 senators to become a
prime minister, only 116 MPs are from PPRP (Palang Pracharath Party). The rest
comes from other parties like Democrat and Bhumjaithai party that campaign
against Prayuth’s continuous grip on power. Prayuth cannot boast that more than
a half of Thai voters support him.
So, what would Prayuth do to keep
on staying in power as long as possible?
Prayuth
returns to power by the help of well-prepared plots such as using
administrative and “internal security” power, legislation and the government’s
budget for his purpose. But that is not enough for him to return to power! He
also needs a trick in Election
Commission’s calculation to reassign 7 to 8 MP
seats from the democratic camp to the pro-NCPO camp. Shame on EC to do this!
Nowhere else on earth that we could see a government formed by such a large
number of parties. I think NCPO and the conservative camp recognize this
weakness too.
Another
thorn in NCPO’s side is Future Forward party (FFP), which became popular, as
you can see from the latest by-election in Chiang Mai that an MP from the party
won over 70,000 votes from a single constituency. It reflects how people view
NCPO.
How can
NCPO stay in power for a long time? These are my predictions:
Sharing interests (but sharing it from the position of
power). The strength of NCPO is the support from the military, while the
political parties cannot receive that. If political parties want to stay in
power without coup d’état, they must grant a large concession to NCPO like in the
era of Gen. Kriangsak Shamanant and Prem Tinasulanont, and the prime minister
must come from the military.
“Cobra” MPs (buying
opposition MPs to support the government). A few days ago, there was a meeting and a “photo-op” between leading
members of PPRP and opposition MPs. I
don’t know who are tricked into this game, but some people might go to Prayuth
and say that they have already “hatch cobra eggs”. Anyway, the attempt to buy
20-30 “cobra” MPs is real, as we have seen it before, during, and after the
election.
Extending the power of
senators. According to the
provisional article 270, 272 and 273 of the 2017 constitution, the authority of
a senator is essentially the same as that of an MP: Senators could sit together
with MPs when voting every bill that is considered “related to the reformation”
by the cabinet, or by a group of 100 MPs or 50 senator sending request to the house speaker. Then there is only one member
from the opposition in the committee that decide whether to include senators to
the vote or not. It could be “useful” for “NCPO-2” government to pass the bills
when the vote count in the
house of representative is evenly matched.
“Begging” for “honeymoon
period”. Or as we know it to be,
“please give us some time”.
Reshuffling the cabinet in the case of unpopularity could also be an
option.
But above all, if the
military still supports NCPO, NCPO is here to stay.
If the conservative
elites still support NCPO, NCPO is here to stay.
By using these tricks,
the parliament would only be a theater for so-called “Thai-style democracy”
with many actors showing around according to the script, making people just a bit happier, and a
safety valve for people’s rage. Nothing would be changed. The political
structure is the same. Also, the ruling elite is the same.
