The attempts of the 2nd NCPO government to stay as long as possible

The attempts of the 2^nd NCPO government to stay as long as possible

Tida Tawornseth

June 12, 2019

(Adapted from Facebook live)

While the 2^nd NCPO government has been established by many questionable means, the lack of legitimacy and numerous weak points are apparent. Inheritance of power is clear as the prime minister, deputy prime minister and minister posts are occupied by members of the previous NCPO cabinet like Visanu Krua-ngam, Prawit Wongsuwan, and Somkid Jatusripitak. So, the new government should be called “NCPO-2”.

For “NCPO-1”, it stayed in power for four years and another 280+ days. For “NCPO-2”, the regime also wants to stay in power for even longer.

Is policy the strong or the weak point of NCPO? The junta might think that its policy is the strong point, but I think otherwise. MP candidates from the junta-supported party who met many voters during an election campaign would agree with me that there are many flaws in the junta’s policy.

Although General Prayuth receives the support of 251 MPs and 500 senators to become a prime minister, only 116 MPs are from PPRP (Palang Pracharath Party). The rest comes from other parties like Democrat and Bhumjaithai party that campaign against Prayuth’s continuous grip on power. Prayuth cannot boast that more than a half of Thai voters support him.

So, what would Prayuth do to keep on staying in power as long as possible?

           

Prayuth returns to power by the help of well-prepared plots such as using administrative and “internal security” power, legislation and the government’s budget for his purpose. But that is not enough for him to return to power! He also needs a trick in Election 

Commission’s calculation to reassign 7 to 8 MP seats from the democratic camp to the pro-NCPO camp. Shame on EC to do this! Nowhere else on earth that we could see a government formed by such a large number of parties. I think NCPO and the conservative camp recognize this weakness too.

Another thorn in NCPO’s side is Future Forward party (FFP), which became popular, as you can see from the latest by-election in Chiang Mai that an MP from the party won over 70,000 votes from a single constituency. It reflects how people view NCPO.

How can NCPO stay in power for a long time? These are my predictions:

Sharing interests (but sharing it from the position of power). The strength of NCPO is the support from the military, while the political parties cannot receive that. If political parties want to stay in power without coup d’état, they must grant a large concession to NCPO like in the era of Gen. Kriangsak Shamanant and Prem Tinasulanont, and the prime minister must come from the military.

“Cobra” MPs (buying opposition MPs to support the government). A few days ago, there was a meeting and a “photo-op” between leading members of PPRP and opposition MPs.  I don’t know who are tricked into this game, but some people might go to Prayuth and say that they have already “hatch cobra eggs”. Anyway, the attempt to buy 20-30 “cobra” MPs is real, as we have seen it before, during, and after the election.

Extending the power of senators. According to the provisional article 270, 272 and 273 of the 2017 constitution, the authority of a senator is essentially the same as that of an MP: Senators could sit together with MPs when voting every bill that is considered “related to the reformation” by the cabinet, or by a group of 100 MPs or 50 senator sending request to the house speaker. Then there is only one member from the opposition in the committee that decide whether to include senators to the vote or not. It could be “useful” for “NCPO-2” government to pass the bills when the vote count in the house of representative is evenly matched.

“Begging” for “honeymoon period”. Or as we know it to be, “please give us some time”.

Reshuffling the cabinet in the case of unpopularity could also be an option.

But above all, if the military still supports NCPO, NCPO is here to stay.

If the conservative elites still support NCPO, NCPO is here to stay.

By using these tricks, the parliament would only be a theater for so-called “Thai-style democracy” with many actors showing around according to the script, making people just a bit happier, and a safety valve for people’s rage. Nothing would be changed. The political structure is the same. Also, the ruling elite is the same.